NFL 2016 Week 11 Predictions – Zoltar Recommends the Redskins and the Texans

Zoltar is my NFL prediction computer program. Here are Zoltar’s predictions for week 11 of the 2016 NFL season:


Zoltar:    panthers  by    6  dog =      saints    Vegas:    panthers  by  3.5
Zoltar:     bengals  by    6  dog =       bills    Vegas:     bengals  by    4
Zoltar:     cowboys  by    6  dog =      ravens    Vegas:     cowboys  by    7
Zoltar:    steelers  by    7  dog =      browns    Vegas:    steelers  by    9
Zoltar:       colts  by    6  dog =      titans    Vegas:       colts  by    3
Zoltar:      chiefs  by   10  dog =  buccaneers    Vegas:      chiefs  by  7.5
Zoltar:   cardinals  by    0  dog =     vikings    Vegas:   cardinals  by    0
Zoltar:       lions  by    9  dog =     jaguars    Vegas:       lions  by  6.5
Zoltar:      giants  by    8  dog =       bears    Vegas:      giants  by    6
Zoltar:        rams  by    1  dog =    dolphins    Vegas:        rams  by    1
Zoltar:    seahawks  by    6  dog =      eagles    Vegas:    seahawks  by    6
Zoltar:    patriots  by   12  dog = fortyniners    Vegas:    patriots  by 13.5
Zoltar:    redskins  by    6  dog =     packers    Vegas:    redskins  by  2.5
Zoltar:     raiders  by    0  dog =      texans    Vegas:     raiders  by  5.5

Zoltar theoretically suggests betting when the Vegas line is more than 3.0 points different from Zoltar’s prediction. So for week 10 Zoltar has just two suggestions:

1. Zoltar likes the Vegas favorite Redskins against the Packers. Zoltar thinks the Redskins will win by 6 points but Vegas says the ‘Skins will win only by 2.5 points. A bet on the Redskins will pay off if the Redskins win by 3 points or more.

2. Zoltar likes the Vegas underdog Texans against the Raiders. Zoltar thinks the two teams are evenly matched by Vegas says the Raiders will win by 5.5 points. A bet on the Texans will pay off if the Texans win outright or if the Raiders win but by 5 points or fewer. This game will be played in Mexico City so Zoltar’s home field advantage factor will be off.

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In week 10, Zoltar went a so-so 2-1 against the Vegas point spread. Zoltar correctly suggested bets on the Buccaneers and the Dolphins, but gave an incorrect suggestion to bet on the Jets.

For the season so far, Zoltar is 20-13 against the Vegas spread, for about 61% accuracy. Historically, Zoltar is usually between 62% and 72% accuracy against the Vegas spread over the course of an entire season.

Theoretically, if you must bet $110 to win $100 (typical) then you’ll make money if you predict at 53% accuracy or better. But realistically, you need to predict at 60% accuracy or better against the spread.

Just for fun, I track how well Zoltar and Cortana/Bing Predictions do when just trying to predict just which team will win a game. This isn’t useful except for parlay betting.

In week 10, just predicting winners, Zoltar was a weak 8-6. Cortana/Bing was also not so good with a 7-7 record. For the season, just predicting winners, Zoltar is 93-52 (64% accuracy) and Cortana/Bing is 80-65 (55% accuracy). Note: neither record includes two tie games this season.

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