NFL 2020 Week 21 Super Bowl Predictions – Zoltar and Vegas Predict that the Chiefs Will Beat the Buccaneers

Zoltar is my NFL prediction computer program. It uses a deep neural network and reinforcement learning. The results for the first half of the season were completely crazy. The covid-19 pandemic has had a massive effect on the NFL. I switched Zoltar into experimental mode starting in week #8. For example, I changed the definition of a rout-win from winning by 20+ points to winning by 22+ points.

To me, the most interesting parameter is the home field advantage. For decades, both humans and Zoltar have given 3 points to the home team. But with covid-19, you can argue that the home field advantage is dramatically greater (say 5 or 6 points or more), or dramatically smaller (say 0 or 1 point), or even negative. I won’t know until after the 2020 season is completed and I have enough data to analyze.

Using the experimental parameters, here are Zoltar’s predictions for week #21 — the Super Bowl:

Zoltar:      chiefs  by    1  dog =  buccaneers    Vegas:      chiefs  by  3.5

This prediction assumes that the Buccaneers have a 2-point home field advantage because the game is being played in Tampa Bay.

Old Zoltar theoretically used to suggest betting when the Vegas line is more than 3.0 points different from Zoltar’s prediction. At this point, it’s beginning to look like an improved strategy will be something like bet on Vegas underdogs only if Zoltar and Vegas differ by more than 6 points, or bet on Vegas favorites if Zoltar and Vegas differ by more than 2 points. I’ll have to do an analysis after this season is over.

Because the difference between Zoltar and Vegas is only 2.5 points, Zoltar does not have any hypothetical betting advice. If Zoltar was forced to make a recommendation, he’d say bet on the Buccaneers. Such a bet would win if the Buccaneers win by any score, or if the Chiefs win but by less than 3.5 points (in other words, 3 points or fewer).

For the regular 2020 season, Zoltar finished 43-28 (60.5% accuracy) against the Las Vegas point spread. This is a bit worse than most seasons.

For fun, I track how well Zoltar and the Vegas point spreads do when just predicting which team will win (not by how much). In week #20, just predicting the winning team, Zoltar was 1-1. The Las Vegas point spread was also 1-1. Zoltar and Vegas both correctly thought the Chiefs would beat the Bills, but missed by predicting the Green Bay Packers would beat the Buccaneers.

For the season, just predicting which team would win, Zoltar finished 175-80 (68.6% accuracy) and Las Vegas finished nearly the same at 173-82 (67.8% accuracy).

My football prediction system is named after the Zoltar fortune teller machine you can find in arcades. The arcade Zoltar is named after a Zoltar machine that appeared in the 1988 movie “Big”, about a boy who wishes he was an adult. The movie Zoltar was named after Zoltan, a 1960s era arcade fortune teller machine.