NFL 2022 Week 4 Predictions – Zoltar Thinks the Raiders Will Cover Over Broncos

Zoltar is my NFL football prediction computer program. It uses reinforcement learning and a neural network. Here are Zoltar’s predictions for week #4 of the 2022 season. These predictions are fuzzy, in the sense that it usually takes Zoltar about four weeks to hit his stride.

Zoltar:     bengals  by    4  dog =    dolphins    Vegas:     bengals  by  3.5
Zoltar:      saints  by    2  dog =     vikings    Vegas:     vikings  by    3
Zoltar:     falcons  by    2  dog =      browns    Vegas:      browns  by  1.5
Zoltar:      titans  by    0  dog =       colts    Vegas:       colts  by  3.5
Zoltar:     cowboys  by    6  dog =  commanders    Vegas:     cowboys  by    3
Zoltar:    seahawks  by    0  dog =       lions    Vegas:       lions  by    6
Zoltar:    chargers  by    0  dog =      texans    Vegas:    chargers  by  5.5
Zoltar:       bears  by    0  dog =      giants    Vegas:      giants  by  3.5
Zoltar:      eagles  by    7  dog =     jaguars    Vegas:      eagles  by  6.5
Zoltar:    steelers  by    6  dog =        jets    Vegas:    steelers  by  3.5
Zoltar:       bills  by    0  dog =      ravens    Vegas:       bills  by  3.5
Zoltar:   cardinals  by    2  dog =    panthers    Vegas:    panthers  by  1.5
Zoltar:     packers  by    6  dog =    patriots    Vegas:     packers  by 10.5
Zoltar:     raiders  by    6  dog =     broncos    Vegas:     raiders  by  1.5
Zoltar:  buccaneers  by    5  dog =      chiefs    Vegas:      chiefs  by  2.5
Zoltar:        rams  by    0  dog = fortyniners    Vegas: fortyniners  by  2.5

Zoltar theoretically suggests betting when the Vegas line is “significantly” different from Zoltar’s prediction. In mid-season I use 3.0 points difference but for the first few weeks of the season I am a bit more conservative and use 4.0 points difference as the advice threshold criterion.

At the beginning of the season, because of Zoltar’s initialization (all teams regress to an average power rating) and other algorithms, Zoltar is very strongly biased towards Vegas underdogs. I probably need to fix this. For week #4 Zoltar likes five Vegas underdogs and one Vegas favorite:

1. Zoltar likes Vegas underdog Saints against the Vikings.
2. Zoltar likes Vegas underdog Seahawks against the Lions.
3. Zoltar likes Vegas underdog Texans against the Chargers.
4. Zoltar likes Vegas underdog Patriots against the Packers.
5. Zoltar likes Vegas favorite Raiders over the Broncos.
6. Zoltar likes Vegas underdog Buccaneers against the Chiefs.

For example, a bet on the underdog Saints against the Vikings will pay off if the Saints win by any score, or if the favored Vikings win but by less than 3.0 points (in other words, by 2 points or less). If the favored Vikings win by exactly 3 points, the wager is a push.

Theoretically, if you must bet $110 to win $100 (typical in Vegas) then you’ll make money if you predict at 53% accuracy or better. But realistically, you need to predict at 60% accuracy or better.

In week #3, against the Vegas point spread, Zoltar went a weak (but somewhat unlucky) 3-3 (using 4.0 points as the advice threshold). Zoltar was on the wrong side of a bad beat in the Steelers vs. Browns game. Zoltar suggested a hypothetical wager on the underdog Steelers where the Browns were -6.0 point spread. On the last play of the game, the Steelers were losing 23-17 and so the hypothetical wager would be a push. But the Steelers tried a crazy play, which completely backfired, and the Browns scored on a fumble recovery to win by 29-17 and so all wagers on the Steelers lost. Arg. Things like this make watching games exciting up until the very end of a game.

For the season, Zoltar is 11-6 (64.7% accuracy).

Just for fun, I track how well Zoltar does when just trying to predict just which team will win a game. This isn’t useful except for parlay betting. In week #3, just predicting the winning team, Zoltar went 10-6 which is OK but not great. Vegas was not so good just predicting winners in week #3, going just 7-9.

Zoltar sometimes predicts a 0-point margin of victory. There are six such games in week #4. In those situations, to pick a winner (only so I can track raw number of correct predictions) in the first few weeks of the season, Zoltar picks the home team to win. After that, Zoltar uses his algorithms to pick a winner.

Left: Electric football was invented in the late 1940s. This is a 1960s era version. The game is still very popular today. Center: Strat-O-Matic football was introduced in 1968 and was intended for teen boys as well as adults. The statistics of the game fascinated me when I was young and probably influenced my love of mathematics and computer science. Right: The 3M Pro Football game was introduced in 1966 but is no longer manufactured. I’ve played it a few times and enjoyed it a lot.